Why a Victory in the Upcoming Elections in Bihar is Crucial For Narendra Modi

Of the four protagonists who are at the forefront of the poll theatre that will soon play out with the Bihar elections, the character with the least to lose and gain from the results seems to be the most determined to win. Lalu Prasad Yadav, who is not placed in a formal position of power at the moment, will probably not have one even if he emerges on the winning side. Nonetheless, he has successfully managed to push both his competitors and ally on the fringe and claim the limelight for himself. Among his rivals, two are armed with the assurance of remaining in office no matter what the outcome of the election. The fourth, Janata Dal’s (United) Nitish Kumar, on the other hand, stands to lose the most—both his job as the current chief minister of Bihar and his political clout.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party president Amit Shah will probably not face any significant threat to their positions even if the dice does not roll in their favour. After all, it is too early to call for a change in leadership in the Sangh Parivar. However, in the event of a loss, there will definitely be raised eyebrows and Modi may be forced to devolve more power to ministers who were hitherto toothless. It is possible, that Shah too will be nudged intoacceding greater authorityto other leaders within the party and removingthe layers of insulation that surround his office. In such a situation, power will no longer be used indiscriminately. It will instead, be used as a form of checks and balances. This shift in the balance would perhaps represent the “best-case scenario” that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh leadership had hoped for before May 16 2014: a reined Modi and not a rampant one. Modi after all was not the first choice of the RSS’s top leadership and agreed to his anointment only when faced with pressure from below.”

The fanfare notwithstanding, the BJP’s prospects in the upcoming assembly election do not look very bright. The odds in Bihar, even by conservative estimates, are definitely not stacked in Modi’s favour. It would be difficult—though not impossible—for the BJP to reach anywhere close to its parliamentary performance last year. Back then, the party had established its superiority in 121 assembly segments on its own and with its allies, the tally was a redoubtable 172. The arithmetic of the Bihar election will make replicating that victory an uphill task. In the 2014 parliamentary polls, the anti-BJP vote was divided between JD(U) that got 16 percent of the total votes, the Rashtriya Janata Dal that got 20 percent and the Congress with 8 percent. Consequently, the BJP and its allies picked up 31 out of 40 seats in Bihar with nearly 39 percent of the total votes. This time the combined vote share of the Grand Alliance—comprising the Congress, the RJD and JD(U)—will not exactly be a sum total of what they polled last year, but would definitely be close to the 44 percent mark of that time. Meanwhile, it is probable that the BJP’s vote share will not go up, at least on paper.

If the BJP fails to win, it would be because Modi has tended to overvalue his capacity to transcend identity and local sentiments. Conversely, a BJP victory would indicate that electoral choices are being shaped more by personality than by identity. It is in pursuit of its belief in the dominance of the latter trend that the BJP appears to have opted for a campaign that centres on Modi. Despite the erosion in Modi’s popularity, his ability to draw people in remains unparalleled. However, the number of people in his rallies does not provide any evidence of the electoral support he will get. While Modi was able to win the popular mandate as a proxy nominee in states such as Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand that held elections last year, there is no certainty that he would be able to do the same in Bihar.

The anti-incumbent sentiment against Nitish Kumar in Bihar is not as strong as it was in the case of the states that held elections last year and witnessed a change in guard. This only deepens the prime minister’s challenge. As a consequence, Modi’s campaign appears to have been crafted by keeping an assortment of factors in mind. These include the fear of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s return, continued emphasis on the failings of his old bête noire and the peddling of that deceptive Bihar package. The party has been citing its package of Rs1.25 lakh as evidence that Modi will “give a lot” to Bihar. However, his adversaries argue that this declaration is merely the repackaging of existing schemes, a craft that Modi is skilled at.

As always, Modi is adept as selling dreams. However, he is handicapped by the lack of any feat he can term an achievement in the past 16 months, save the zero balance accounts under Jan DhanYojana. Modi’s oft-repeated success stories from Gujarat, which have now assumed the stature of urban myths, cannot be recounted endlessly, particularly when the state is in turmoil as identity politics has reared its head there.

A victory in the Bihar elections is crucial for Modi to reverse his sliding fortunes from 2015. If 2014 was a year in which the prime minister and his lofty promises struck electoral gold, 2015 is when his failure to deliver on those commitments has cost him dearly. From the infamous pinstripes he sported that made his previously invincible persona slightly comical, to his inelegant handling of the land acquisition bill, most of these setbacks have been of his own making. BJP's rout in the Delhi assembly elections was colossal not just because of its margin, but also because it was Modi’s first electoral setback. Losing the elections in Bihar would create a significant dent in his trajectory, as two consecutive losses would raise aspersions on his political acumen. A victory at this point is essential for Modi to reclaim his Midas touch and restore his authority

Halting the inevitable downward slide that would follow a loss in Bihar, will be a crucial element in managing perceptions both within the SanghParivar and outside it. Modi remains a popular draw with the youth and continues to register high ratings. However, he also has to regain the confidence of those sections that will help him in any efforts he makes in turning India’s economy around. In recent months, the government has faced criticism for being slow on reforms and for its inability to go beyond the vision that Modi has periodically publicised. Witness for instance, the relative dampness of his second visit to United States where in his meetings with most business heads, he remains in promissory mode. To return to Modi’s fold, neo-converts who voted for him in the general elections will require evidence that Modi likes the monotony of implementation in dank government rooms as much as he enjoys being on the proscenium. This would largely involve wooing backdifferent sectors of the financial world. A victory in Bihar will enable Modi to do just that. He would gain an upper hand with businesses, as they would welcome a triumph that is able to signal a return of governance.

The biggest hurdle for Modi is the presence of a resurgent Lalu Prasad Yadav. If in 2014, Modi nicknamed the United Progressive Alliance Maa-Bete-Ki-Sarkar—a government run by mother and son—this year, he is faced with a similar barrage of rhetoric through Yadav who in a recent taunt to the BJP and the RSS said,“ Agar koi ma kadoodhpiyahai, to arakshankhatamkarkedikhaye—if you have consumed your mother’s milk, then scrap reservations.” Nothing hurts Modi more than a politician who is not just questioning, but also matching his chutzpah. Yadav is employing the same strategies that Modi had mastered last year, and leveraging them as formidable arsenal. He has apportioned blame on the present government for not releasing data on caste from the last census. Not unlike Modi, Yadav is also proficient at spinning half-truths to make a compelling case for himself. The past seems to have caught up with Modi as Yadav promises the undeliverable, an increase in reservations, while paying scant regard to legal limit.

Yadav’s re-emergence has a lesson for everyone. The timing of his political comeback this year underscores the significance of the election for the nation. His displacement of Modi as the fulcrum of the election demonstrates that identity politics continues to remain a central and polarising force. Last year, many—including Modi—had pompously declared that identity politics had come to an end in India and development was now the most pivotal issue for the electorate. Yet, the manner in which even the BJP has forged a caste alliance encompassing all sections in Bihar suggests that the party has realised that this reading was hasty. This suggests that the verdict in the Bihar elections will also help ascertain whether primordial identities shall remain restricted to the social sphere or decisively impact electoral choices as well.

A disparity between the fortunes of parties that fare well in the centre, only to deliver poorly in state elections is not a new phenomenon. The United Progressive Alliance had lost the Bihar elections eighteen months after defeating the Vajpayee-led NDA in May 2004. Yet, it went on to govern India for a decade. The BJP lost Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in November 1998 just months after Vajpayee formed the first NDA government and was re-elected in the parliamentary polls just eleven months later. However, in each of these cases, the verdicts wobbled the anchored ship that had to be steadied by astute hands.

Elections in Bihar will be followed by polls in several states next year and barring Assam, the BJP can at best, hope for an odd picking. But 2017 will be a big year with Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa in the early part of the year followed by Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh towards the end. The verdict in Bihar will determine the BJP’s strategy in these states and establish whether the party will continue with its approach of securing mandates for proxy nominees, or start contesting polls after naming chief ministerial candidates. If Modi emerges triumphant in Bihar, there will probably be no change in strategy. But if the BJP loses, its collegiate style of functioning will stage a comeback and state elections will not be fought in the name of Modi. This would be a huge personal setback for the prime minister.